INTRODUCTION TO NEW BLOG

For the past 20 years I have been a student of the stock market.  For the last 10 years or so in particular it has been my passion and focus to develop an accurate, robust long term timing method; the primary purpose being to help individuals decide when they may want to be invested in stocks or mutual funds in their retirement plan and when to exit or move 100% into cash.  If a method like this exists, the value cannot be overstated.  I have spoken to countless individuals whose retirement plans were decimated in the last two major bear markets.  Many are just seeing their equity recover back to the same level as in early 2000.  What if they had the aid of a good long term timing method to help them avoid these gut wrenching losses?  What would their results be today?

I am happy to say that I have developed an accurate, robust long term timing method which has been back tested over several decades of data.  This model is NOT simply a computer algorithm which spits out mechanical buy and sell signals but is rather a rule based approach based on decades of experience looking at price charts and the most important indicators that confirm long term trend changes.  Without getting into too much detail following are the factors that I look at to determine the buy and exit signals:

1)     Price and momentum analysis of Quarterly chart.

2)     Analysis of price swings based on daily price data.

3)     Analysis of significant support and resistance levels.

4)     Analysis of sentiment.

Below is the most recent quarterly chart of the SPY showing the historical buy and exit signals.As you can see the method had only one losing signal but more importantly never missed a major buy signal AND had you out of the market well before the major drops occurred.

Although I will update the blog weekly (typically Saturday morning), there may not be much commentary as the buy and exit signals are infrequent.  In future posts I’ll get more into hedging techniques that can be very useful during intermediate term corrections during a bull market.  If you have any questions or suggestions, please send me an email.  Have a great holiday weekend!