WEEKLY MARKET UPDATE

Both the long term and intermediate term trends remain solidly up.  For the past several weeks I've been posting a weekly chart of the SPY.  The weekly chart is basically the lowest time frame chart I use for determining intermediate term trend strength and for helping to confirm longer term trends.  Any lower time frame charts contain too much random movement and IMHO don't give a reliable picture of trend.  In fact, even the weekly chart is often too noisy for my taste.  Most of my analysis for determining the long term trend and likely intermediate term reversals is done on the monthly and quarterly charts.  Today I thought I would post a quarterly chart of the SPY to give you another perspective on the strength of the long term trend.  Each bar on this chart represents price movement on a calendar quarter basis.  The last currently developing bar is for the period September 1 - November 15.  This bar will complete on December 31.  As you can see there have now been two consecutive quarters where the market has closed above the previous all time highs in 2000 and 2007.

CONCLUSION

As I've stated in previous posts the market is still very overbought and susceptible to an intermediate term correction if the other metrics confirm, but the long term trend is very much intact right now.